Staff Blog
Right Now, Ryan Braun is your NL MVP
As the baseball season turns it’s final month for the first time in what seems like a long time (fact check: one year) the NL MVP race is still wide open, and not wide open in the rhetorical sportswriter meme where “every vote counts” but wide open in the sense that I’ve read legitimate arguments for probably about 15 candidates.
I’ve seen that Chase is the odds-on favorite, read that Aramis Ramirez is going to emerge from the pack, heard that it’s between Pujols and Lance Berkman for the belt and even had people believe that the Kenesaw Mountain Landis Award is Carlos Delgado’s, or Ryan Ludwick’s, or CC Sabathia’s to lose. And all of that is without delving into the layers of nonsense that commenters can come up with.
With that in mind, I’m going to dive into the stats, the standings, and the rest of the season to see who can, should, and will be the 2008 National League MVP. One man’s MVP Ballot …
Obvious caveat: A lot can change in a month. If Miss Davis from Varsity Blues can beat out Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty for the chance to kiss babies, attend funerals and shoot friends in the face next to McCain for four years, it is plausible that any of two dozen more names could come up. That said, in descending order and increasing in interest …
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| the NL MVP award |
10. Chipper Jones
Oh Chipper, remember when you were going to hit .400?
9. Lance Berkman
Fat Elvis is second in runs, second in SLG, second in OPS, third in OBP, third in BA, forth in walks, 9th in RBI.
… For a bush league team, and all in the first half of the season.
8. Ryan Howard
Set aside the batting average - and maybe you should, he hits .280 with runners on - and he probably becomes the favorite. He’s leading the league in home runs and RBI and won’t lose either lead. He’s feared, he can hit it out to anywhere in the park and he has the cred of one trophy on his mantle already.
On the flip side he’s batting .236, he can’t hit lefties to save his life and he’s not in the top twenty in slugging. It’s all or nothing for the big lefty, and in this race, it’s nothing.
7. David Wright
I had Wright higher until I took a closer look at his numbers. He is second in the league RBI, forth in runs, top ten in hits and doubles. Plus he’s the reigning gold glove third basemen and playing for a contending team in a high-pressure market.
Still, he’s not top ten in HRs, BA, OBP, SLUG, or OPS. Nor is he better than the showboat who he keeps driving in. He might win (baseball writers of America love themselves RBI) but he shouldn’t.
6. Hanley Ramirez
A serious case can be made that Hanley Ramirez is the best offensive player in major league baseball. He leads the league in runs, and is top ten in HRs, BBs, SB, OBP, SLG, and OPS. He’s one home run away from another 30-30 season and has been the sparkplug for a surprise team.
Plus he has Reyes-esque charisma. If he was in a bigger market you would see his face on your magazines and video games, and his name on your jersey. He’s awesome.
That said, his team fell apart just as voters started paying attention. Not this year Hanley, but one day.
5. Chase Utley
The early season favorite, Utley is 5th in home runs, top ten in slugging, runs, and OPS. Plus he’s giving you that production from second base, which is virtually unheard of.
Chase has the most to gain from a big September - the NL East race means that the lights will be brightest, and if goes on a tear like he the one he was on earlier this year to propel the Phillies to the crown he should be in good shape to take home the award.
4. Aramis Ramirez
This is admittedly probably a product of seeing him hit that game-winning grand slam off of us last week, but Ramirez has been the most productive player on the league’s best team, and like it or not, that means something.
The Cubs lead the league in come-from-behind victories, and Ramirez - who leads the majors in RBI from the 7th on - is the reason why. It’s not a voter-friendly stat, but his “late and close” numbers are off the charts. I stole this stat from the link above, but in 83 plate appearances (a legit sample size), Ramirez’s OBP is .530. That means that the game is on the line Ramirez is literally more likely than not to reach base. In a game where getting on base is kinda important, that’s absurd.
Also, this is a late season award and Ramirez is leading the majors in RBI in August, and has been the engine behind the league’s best offense.
He finishes out of the top ten in runs, hits, OPS and home runs, and his .276 batting average will (and should) eliminate him from winning the thing, but he needs to be more in the discussion.
3. Jose Reyes
Jose Reyes is leading the league in hits - by 20. It’s well documented how much better Wright, Beltran and Delgado hit when he’s on base, and he’s spent the entire summer on base. Plus he’s electric, charismatic, and the heart of the team. In the recent series against the Phils he led the entire team in wind sprints just absorbing the boos.
But … he’s a leadoff guy with a pretty good OBS and no power. Hard to win that way.
2. Albert Pujols
Jose Alberto is leading the league in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage (and, obviously, OPS). He’s the most feared hitter in the league - his 32 IBBs are more than double the next guy - and rightly so. He has 30 homers - 7th in the league - and 91 RBIs. He has 23 more walks than Ryan Howard and (no joke) 135 less Ks.
He’s probably the most valuable in the traditional sense - his team blows still has a better record than the Phillies - but his inability to get the Cards to postseason may hurt him. As will the moment that voters see that he’s not leading his own team (a non-playoff team at that) in HRs or RBI.
1. Ryan Braun
The Hebrew Hammer (greatest Jewish themed sports nickname since THIS GUY) is leading the league in extra base hits and has become the offensive face of a franchise headed to the playoffs for the first time since he’s been alive.
The reigning ROY is also third in the league in home runs, sixth in RBIs, fifth in doubles, hitting over .300, ahead of Chase Utley and Hanley Rarmirez in OPS and has stolen 11 bags for good measure. On top of all that Buster Olney recently broke down the stats and anointed him the best hitter against good pitching in the game.
I don’t think he wins - he has been steady as opposed to spectacular - but as the only guy on a potential playoff team who can be on this list he has to be considered. If he does get the hardware it will be because the big twos - Pujols & Ludwick, Reyes & Wright, Utley & Howard, and Ramirez & Soto, all cancel each other out.
I say they should.
