Staff Blog
a look at the Phillies new pitching
Yesterday there were two important moments that should dictate the future of the Phillies’ pitching staff: first they traded for righthander Joe Blanton, and second lefthander J.A. Happ had a comically good outing (in a game that was continued from before the break, Happ threw 7 innings of 12-k, no-hit ball - an outing far better than any of opening-day starter Brett Myers‘ minor league starts). I think the takeaway from these two is relatively simple: the Phillies have to promote J.A. Happ, send Eaton to the bullpen/minors/whatever and make Brett Myers the set-up man he so desires to be.
Full explanation of how I came to that conclusion, and much more on the trade, ATJ
First, Blanton. Everyone has been killing the Phillies for this move for a couple of main reasons. (FWIW, Tim Malcolm at Phillies Nation argues this side HERE and a makes a couple of fair points along the way)
Fans have been complaining both about what we gave up and what we got back. I think they’re wrong in both cases
First the prospects:
The prize was Adrian Cardenas, a 20-year-old middle infielder. Baseball America rated him the Phils’ No. 2 prospect. The case for keeping him was that he projects to a definite major leaguer, he has a good contact swing and can play second and short.
Keith Law of Scouts Inc. says that
In a perfect world, he becomes a solid-to-average offensive second baseman with an average glove. He has a short enough swing to make plenty of contact, but he’s not physical and won’t hit for much power. He’s not fast out of the box, but shows above-average speed going first-to-third. He’s also a perfect 16-for-16 in steals this year.
So he’s a smart player without out of this world talent. In a perfect world he’s pretty good, and to be fair pretty good is pretty good, you can’t have enough of those guys. Still - it doesn’t sound like he’s a future MVP either. People are getting riled up over the fact that Cardenas is rated as the Phillies’ #2 prospect but ignoring the fact the fact that he isn’t a Baseball America top 100 guy. Good for the Phillies system doesn’t necessarily mean good, and while that does mean that the Phils need to emphasize re-stocking their cupboard, a bare cupboard is isn’t reason enough to keep bits of bread that aren’t going to eat.
The second prospect, Josh Outman is a left-handed reliever in Double A reading. Law had this to day:
[Outman] projects as a lefty specialist right now, although he could end up a bit more than that if he improves his control and his changeup.
The case for keeping him was basically that you can never have enough LOOGYs. That may be true, and maybe Outman becomes the greatest left-handed middle reliever in the world, but the possibility than a guy emerges as a servicable specialist doesn’t seem like reason enough to stop a trade, especially when the team believes that they’re close. I think Outman is going to be have a career in the majors as a Rheal Cormier / Kent Mercker type. That isn’t a knock, Cormier and Mercker were nice guys to have in the 6th and 7th innings, and they stuck around the majors for decades, but they’re rarely the difference between wins and losses.
Matt Spencer, the third guy in the deal, isn’t considered much by anyone. It would be a surprise if he made the majors.
So the Phillies traded away a guy whose potential is a solid starting infielder, a career middle reliever, and a guy who probably won’t see the majors. That, by itself, shouldn’t be franchise crippling. If Blanton blows up, can’t pitch in Philly and never sees the majors again it came at very little cost. In the long term, losing those three is probably going to be just fine.
But there is another case that is being made: The case against Blanton.
The argument against Blanton is that He’s a move to make a move. He no better than Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick or Brett Myers … plus he’s fat. Sports Talk Radio took one look at his 5-12 record and decided that he was a bum. In what took me a surprise, most of the internet chatter followed suit.
If I sound dismissive about this point, it is because I am. SABRmetrics be damned, I actually believe that your record shows something and I still am a fan of Blanton, more so than most. He’s been a 200 inning guy the last three years, and in only one of those did he finish with an ERA over 4.00. Last year were less than ten pitchers who had 220 IP and an era under four, five of them have won the Cy Young (Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, CC Sabathia and Roy Halladay) three of them have been top five (John Lackey - 3, Tim Hudson - 2, Aaron Harang - 4) and one is Dan Haren (Dan Haren). Sure, Blanton is the worst of that bunch, but that isn’t a bad group to be the worst in. He isn’t going to overpower teams, but he will keep you in the game and get through innings.
Beyond that, at 27 he’s entering his primes now and as far as the season is concerned we couldn’t have gotten him at a better time in the season. He’s a second half pitcher and because he gets so much better as an AB drags on (check out his batting average against splits in different counts) and doesn’t seem to tire in games he becomes even more effective in the postseason where the name of the game is pitch count.
I admit I’m swimming against the tide here, but I think you can slot Joe Blanton in as your #2 starter and be competitive in this league. Plus it isn’t like Blanton is a rental, we get two more arbitration years.
Now, the rest of it.
Right now the Phillies have seven starters who they can consider throwing: Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick, Brett Myers, Adam Eaton, and J.A. Happ.
Assuming that we’ve already bumped Eaton to the bullpen (which looks like a lock) that means that the final spot in the rotation is down to Brett Myers and J.A. Happ.
With two decent starts in the majors and a dominating performance in Triple A Happ has earned a shot at starting. His confidence isn’t going to get higher (and if we keep him down it could get much lower) and at 25 he’s wasting bullets in the minors.
Plus Myers has made it obvious that he is neither the starter he once was, nor is he going to be happy unless he’s in the bullpen. This move gives us a reliable arm to replace Gordon in the 8th and increases Myers’ value to a team in search of a closer this offseason.
That would mean that, going into the playoffs, the Phillies would have a 1-5 rotation of Hamels, Blanton, Moyer, Kendrick, Happ (LRLRL by the way) and Lidge, Myers, Gordon, Romero, Madson, and Durbin all in the bullpen.
In a league where no team’s pitching is spectacular, I think that can win.
Now, if only Jimmy and the bottom of the lineup can turn it on.
i agree, i can’t believe people are ripping the trade. I thought this was a coup for us. The thing about Cardenas is this: 1) there was never even a hint of a possibility that he was gonna play in a Phillies uniform. Utley will be here longer than any current Phillie, so Cardenas has been trade bait from the beginning; which leads to 2) being that he’s a contact-hitting, decent-speed 2B, he is not a guy who — even had he played his way up the system and continued playing well — would have ever had any more trade value than he has now. unlike a stud AAA pitcher, who would be the centerpiece of acquiring a star, the best that a good-hitting AAA second basemen is gonna bring you is a B+ starter. which Joe Blanton happens to be. there was absolutely no reason to sit on Cardenas, when he never would have brought in much more than he is now. not to mention, for all those lamenting Josh Outman’s departure, there is no easier position to fill in MLB than lefty specialist. sure, some are better than others, but remember, we got our current one off waivers when it looked like his career was over.
Pomp J: I agree with most of what you say. However, I think it is possible (if not probable) that Cardenas will develop power, which is the one possible outcome that would make this trade look bad for us (see Sandberg, Ryne, where Blanton is, improbably, Ivan DeJesus). While projecting power is one of those things best left to scouts, Baseball Prospectus’ list of comparable players at similar points in their careers includes a confusing mix of folks: Hank Blalock, Brent Abernathy, Frank Catalanatto, Brandon Phillips and a bunch of guys who never made the show.
No question that if Cardenas develops power (and I ignored this possibility), the trade will look much worse. And even if he doesn’t, had he been traded for a 3-month rental like Lohse, I’d be unhappy. Not to mention, reading the BP tidbit about Cardenas playing the piano at his draft party makes me sad to lose him. However, i love getting a young pitcher who we control for 2.5 years, and whose BP comparisons include such studs as Chris Bosio and Freddy Garcia (even though i’m joking, both guys had pretty decent careers). I think getting a young pitcher is enough to risk the chance of a good second baseman becoming great. And it’s certainly enough for this trade not be ripped by the media.
@ PJ: great point about middle infielders not gaining value. Look at Pedroia before last year: here was a guy who was an established big league prospect and his name was thrown in every random Red Sox trade rumor there was as the secondary prospect.
and that piano bit was great right up until it reminded me of Joey Harrington
Pomp J: I’d forgotten about that Cardenas/piano story. I’m a little sadder about losing him now.
that reminds me of this hilarious exchange on Baseball Primer’s Transaction Oracle after the trade: